Risk Assessments

This desk-based tool uses inputs that are strongly correlated to climate change impacts. Correlation does not equal causation, and there will inevitably be some variation between the accuracy of risk values for certain sites. For example, the tool is strongly biased towards terrestrial historic sites and monuments vs. buried or underwater sites.

The tool is intentionally constrained by publicly available data applicable to all Antarctic HSMs. This necessarily excludes the more accurate data that is available for some, but not all HSMs (e.g., Antarctic Automated Weather System (AWS) data). One of the objectives of this initial risk assessment is that it should be useful for the largest possible number of HSM managers. Slope and site aspect are examples of similarly excluded conditions which are strongly correlated with climate change impacts, especially when permafrost is present. These and other correlated conditions will be explored during Part Two of the project.

The risk values produced by this tool are intended for high-level planning purposes such as determining where to prioritise resources across multiple sites. Generally speaking, high risk value returns (e.g. greater than 7) are indicative of an urgent need for further action. This should include a more detailed investigation of the site (i.e., fieldwork) to gather more nuanced site data and field observations. Part Two will explore more detailed, site-based risk assessments.

Lastly, it should be remembered that the resulting risk values are only reflective of climate change impacts. For example, this assessment tool does not consider other types of risk factors such as development, which may well be present at some sites.